The most intriguing aspect of the presidential campaigns are those first few months when all things are possible. The upcoming 2012 election will prove no different. First, we have the colorful characters that hover in the wings: Palin and Perry (almost sounds like a law firm). Then there are the two Mormons, a strong start for a woman, a pack of the usual crowd of “experienced” politicians (usually governors). But then there is the Ron Paul and Herman Cain.
I don’t have cable TV, so what I obtain are often snypets garnered from cable news which is usually on the TV in the cafeteria where I work, or from the Internet. When I viewed the debate in South Carolina a few months back, one person really (and I mean “really”) got my attention — Herman Cain. Who was this guy? What impressed me was the clarity with which he spoke. And much of the substance of what he said was outside the bandwidth of much of the political language common to the Beltway. He thinks different. He communicates different.
Often we get bogged down in the details of political issues, but what matters most in a presidential candidate is not substance, but the “aura”. President Obama is our most recent example of that when he won the office in 2008. While pundits often blame the “left-wing” media for not telling the American people where this man actually stood (somewhere to the left of Nancy Pelosi), the truth is a bit grayer, that many Americans were drawn to Obama for intangible reasons. He stood for something that they needed to see in a president.
It was 1976 when a new face appeared on the scene. The country was licking its wounds from the disaster in Vietnam, it’s president had resigned in disgrace, it’s current president was not elected and he was plain spoken. Along comes this guy that nobody had heard of, who was soft-spoken, gentle, patient and gracious. He talked of healing the country. The Democratic establishment saw nothing good in him, so his base of support was outside their bandwidth. His name was Jimmy Carter.
Yes — that Jimmy Carter! For all the disdain that conservatives throw at the poor guy, they often forget what caused him to get a elected in the first place. He presented a figure to the American people that they wanted to see in the White House. Who knew or cared about his political stances?
Today, the outsider that is crashing the party is Herman Cain. He is not Jimmy Carter in personality nor in politics. But he is outside the establishment, he speaks in a tone and manner that is often perceived to be clear, concise. Economic depression is often the most confusing thing for voters to comprehend because few understand economics. I find it interesting that when Herman Cain speaks, he often cuts through the confusion. Like Jimmy Carter, Cain will find the biggest challenge to be getting name recognition and building a base of volunteers. If he succeeds, watch out. It will change the entire dynamic of the race, and it will change the Republican Party.
Carter was defeated by Ronald Reagan in 1980. Like Carter, Reagan was for all practical purposes an “outsider”. The Republican Party, at that time, was led by “Rockefeller Republicans” who were generally more liberal on social issues, more of the stereotypical country-club sorts. Reagan was always speaking from the outside at Republican events. But his strength, over time, was not because he changed his politics, but because he maintained his course. The message did not change. In 1980, the American people demonstrated they were ready to give him a chance.
Ron Paul, like Reagan when he ran in 1980, is elderly. But there is not a candidate running who has been more consistent. He demonstrated he could give it a good run in 2008 (just like Reagan in 1976), and he has had a strong start to this campaign. More important, what he said 20 years ago is coming true today — that bad policies have bad consequences. He has been unpopular because he has dared to discuss uncomfortable issues: deficit spending, decriminalization of illicit drugs, unecessary wars, the true costs of correcting structural weaknesses in Social Security and Medicare. He has some way-out ideas like disbanding the Federal Reserve. The important thing is not the details of his platform, but the fact that he has been consistent. Here is a man who believes in what he says.
I find the prospect of having Paul or Cain in the White House rather intriguing. I can figure Cain will be much like Reagan, having strong convictions but also a pragmatist. Paul I think will also turn out to be pragmatic as well, hopefully choosing the battles that can be won. His decades in Congress will certainly prove to his advantage. Both will bring in a large troupe of outsiders that will put the establishment on it’s heels. Both will be strongly tempted to forfeit their principles in their efforts to advance them. Whether they succeed will determine if they will have a legacy more like Carter or Reagan.
